The Colby Echo

Issue date: 2/16/07 Section: Opinions

With over 600 days to go before the 2008 presidential election, all the major candidates (save the possibility of Al Gore and to a lesser extent Newt Gingrich) have thrown their hats into the most wide-open presidential election in recent history. What's striking isn't the raw ambition from members of both parties; it is how early the race has begun. With each major candidate attempting to gain media attention through fancy internet webpages and their major announcement address, the campaign for President (which truthfully began in earnest after the 2004 election) has finally arrived for the public.

The major Democratic contenders have unveiled their respective campaigns over the past month. Former Senator and vice-presidential candidate John Edwards was first to announce in a speech from New Orleans. His populist theme was evident in the geographical choice of his address. In the past two weeks, Senator Hillary Clinton and Senator Barack Obama have both announced that they have formed presidential exploratory committees. Initiating an exploratory committee is the first step to formally announce that one is running for President.

The Republicans have received less press, mainly due to the slightly-lower star power of their main three candidates: Senator John McCain, former Mayor of New York City Rudy Giuliani, and former Governor Mitt Romney. At this stage, the former two are generally considered the two most serious candidates. However, the lack of strong interest in each of the top three candidates by many religious right groups has troubled the Republican establishment. As the most important voting bloc of the Republican primary season (especially in the South and Midwest), "values" voters will strongly dictate the outcome of the primaries. McCain, who had openly criticized the leaders of the religious right in 2000, has courted their groups recently. Additionally, Giuliani and Romney have deemphasized their past liberal social policy stances in order to appear more amenable to social conservatives. The problem for all three candidates is the expectation that they follow the party line on social issues for their whole careers, not just this campaign. The bar to be vetted by social conservative voters and leaders is exceedingly high, and all three candidates will not likely be able to convince them of their worthiness and commitment to their two chief causes: criminalizing abortion and banning gay marriage.

At this juncture in the process, Democratic prospects are strong. As the Iraq War has begun to splinter Republicans (with Democrats unified in opposition to the president's escalation), the conservative coalition is increasingly in tatters. If Iraq is still mired in a civil war in 2008, a strong anti-war Democrat will have the clear upper-hand, especially over a hawk like McCain (who publicly supports the troop escalation).

The other main story of the election is how the Republicans will use the current President. How much will they be able to embrace of his administration without hurting themselves politically?

What's clear is the openness of the race combined with the early start to the process will lead to a fascinating political context over the next two years.

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